X = Pf * N * Pv
Pf = probability of forwarding
N = number of people who see forward
Pv = probability of viewing
Let’s assume that Evian posted their video on their Facebook page.
Then 100K fans see the video. This is the starting point.
Then 5000 people re-post the video. That makes our Pf equal to 0.05 (5000 divided by 100K).
Pf = 0.05
Then let’s assume that for every re-post an extra 100 people see the video, so, N=100
N=100
Now assume that 25% of people who see the video link, watch the full video. That makes Pv equal to 0.25
Pv=0.25
So, the number of additional views Evian can expect from every video view is:
X=0.05 x 100 x 0.25
X=1.25
The result means that an additional 1.25 video views were generated from every view of the original video. With 100K people seeing the video, that means another 125,000 views are generated through virality, so the video is seen a total of 225K times (the original 100K + an additional 125K). Now, the extra 125K views generated will again generate extra views and so on…
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